Every Tamuno, Dike and Hadi knows that the 2027 elections in Nigeria will be primarily between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The recent de-listing of ADC’s officials (Senator David Mark and former governor Rauf Aregbesola) from the INEC portal will not stop the gang-up against the APC. As my ex-barber used to say, a decapitated man may still smoke a cigarette—if God permits one last smoke!
I now yield the floor to Tamuno, Dike and Hadi as they gather in Biola’s lounge.
ADC vs INEC
Tamuno: I don’t want to be accused of being anti-establishment, but how does one explain INEC’s de-recognition of David Mark’s and Aregbesola’s names on its website? It seems there is a grand plan to frustrate the opposition so that only the APC will be intact by the time the 2027 elections are held.
Dike: APC is scared, but ADC will spring a surprise. Now, it is becoming clear to the ruling party that their overwhelming number of governors and legislators will not translate into victory for their presidential candidate in 2027. They are in for a surprise.
Hadi: I think you southerners should go and resolve your problems. The impression is always given that the north is the problem of Nigeria, but you can see that it is the south that has not made up its mind on which candidate to present for 2027. The Yorubas have enjoyed the position twice, with a vice-presidential slot to boot. But will they cede the presidency to Peter Obi of the ADC so that the Igbos of the southeast can have a taste of the position for once? Whichever way it turns out, we know that the presidency will return to the north in 2031.
Biola: You guys must be living on the moon! You think that some puny conspiracy can derail a president who has touched every facet of our national life, whether you admit it or not?
Dike: Yes, he has touched every facet of our national life negatively.
Tamuno: That’s not charitable. He’s recorded some wins and some failures. He has the courage of his convictions—which is more than can be said of some of his rivals.
Hadi: I hope you realise that somehow, the north still holds the key. If ADC nominates a southerner to fly its flag, who will it be?
Dike: It will be Peter Obi.
Tamuno: I agree with you. I think Obi is the most popular southerner in the ADC.
Biola: Peter Obi will emerge as their candidate.
Hadi: Are you joking, Biola? You want Peter Obi?
Biola: Not me! You asked who ADC was likely to nominate as its presidential candidate.
Dike: Everybody knows that Peter Obi will make a better president than Tinubu.
Biola: There you go again with your generalisations! When did you conduct the research which showed you that everybody agrees that Obi will be a better president? Have you bothered to look at his baggage?
Dike: What baggage?
Biola: When it comes to the crunch, will the core north vote for him?
Religious Factor
Tamuno: From my experience during the Jonathan administration, I doubt if the Muslim north is ready to vote overwhelmingly for a Christian president. Maybe Hadi will educate us better.
Hadi: To be honest, the prevailing sentiment in the Muslim north is that, if they had a say in the matter, they would rather vote for a fellow Muslim. That is why you have a Muslim/Muslim ticket now. The local northerner would like to see his own person on the ticket, preferably at the top.
Dike: But they won’t mind having Obi for four years, especially if he has somebody like Kwankwaso as vice president?
Tamuno: I reckon that about 40 per cent of the north is Christian. So, we shouldn’t be talking as if it is a monolithic entity.
Hadi: Will Kwankwaso accept to play second fiddle to Obi?
Dike: That is an insulting way of putting it. Why can’t Kwankwaso be vice president to Obi? What makes him better than anybody else? If this coalition is going to succeed, everybody will have to pocket his ego.
Biola: But will everybody pocket his religious biases?
Hadi: Not biases—convictions. You can’t blame people for their religious heritage.
Tamuno: Which heritage? Are you an Arab? Why should a foreign religion divide one brother from another in the same country?
Hadi: That is the problem I have with dreamers like you. There is nothing wrong with being different. You have to understand our respective differences.
Dike: So, your point is that Kwankwaso will not agree to be a vice president to Obi?
Hadi: If that’s the way you have chosen to trivialise it, you can reach your own conclusions. You see, it is such a narrow mindset that allows Tinubu to consistently show you people a clean pair of heels in every electoral race. The man is a realist. He does what he has to do. He doesn’t take anybody for granted.
Dike: Oh, you’re already crowning him ahead of 2027. Is that why the APC instructed INEC to delist David Mark and Aregbesola? You want to reduce Nigeria to a one-party state where there is no credible opposition?
Hadi: Me? Haba!
Conflicting Egos
Tamuno: But wait! Why not the other way around? Suppose ADC decides to field Atiku Abubakar or Kwankwaso as the presidential candidate, with Peter Obi as the running mate?
Dike: That will break the traditional North/South rotation. It is the turn of the south now. The refusal of Atiku to abide by that convention led to the destruction of the former leading opposition party, the PDP.
Biola: You haven’t answered the question.
Hadi: Obi’s supporters want the presidency and nothing else. But I always caution that politics is not all black-and-white. There are many shades of grey.
Tamuno: So, which is the better choice between APC and ADC?
Biola: Can you talk of a better choice when both parties have no definite ideology?
Dike: ADC has a better ideology.
Biola: What is your ideology?
Dike: Read our manifesto.
Tamuno: Actually, Nigerians may not be looking for an ideology this time. They probably just want trustworthy, competent people.
Biola: Hehehe… Trustworthy people? And the people you have mentioned are the good people that will take Nigeria to el Dorado?
Hadi: My fear is that ADC may just give the presidency to APC by default. If ADC wants to win, nobody should insist on his fixed ideas and expectations. Otherwise, they will still be arguing among themselves while Tinubu is being sworn in for a second term in 2027.
