The House of Representatives has greenlit the medium-term expenditure framework for 2024-2026, a critical set of assumptions shaping the country’s upcoming budgets. The outlined projections, ratified by President Bola Tinubu’s cabinet before reaching the National Assembly, anticipate the naira to hover around 700 Naira per dollar in 2024, gradually strengthening in the subsequent years.
The recent volatility in the currency market, witnessed when the Naira briefly plummeted to a record low of 1,105 against the dollar, prompted concern. However, the currency swiftly recovered to approximately 800 Naira, highlighting the market’s inherent fluctuations.
The government’s forward-looking perspective factors in a modest increase in crude production and overall gross domestic output growth, aiming for a controlled deceleration in double-digit inflation.
For this fiscal blueprint to take effect, the Senate must also endorse the framework. In tandem, President Tinubu is preparing to submit a 26 trillion naira ($34 billion) spending proposal for 2024 to the legislative body for approval.
Outlined below are key assumptions detailed in the medium-term expenditure framework:
| Assumptions | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate ($) | 700 naira | 665.61 naira | 669.79 naira |
| Oil Production (per barrel) | 1.78 mln | 1.80 mln | 1.81 mln |
| Oil Price ($) | $73.96 | $73.76 | $69.90 |
| GDP Growth | 3.76% | 4.22% | 4.78% |
| Inflation Rate | 21.40% | 20.30% | 18.60% |
This framework forms the cornerstone for Nigeria’s financial planning over the next three years, assuming key economic indicators and carefully navigating the currency’s anticipated trajectory against the dollar.
