What Does Nigeria Need from Her Next President?

Fundamentally, what does Nigeria need from her Next President? The answer is simple! Visionary leadership.

I use the term visionary leadership because as a nation and for many decades we have made the mistake of confusing titles with leadership. As the statesman, diplomat, and former U.S. President John Quincy Adams once said “if your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more, and become more, you are a leader.”

We certainly need a President who brings this critical capacity into the office.

But what is visionary leadership?

I prefer a definition I coined in 2009. It says, “Visionary leadership is the capacity to see a desirable future long before it arrives and the ability to bring it into the present, by influencing, inspiring and using the gifts and talents of others.” I repeat.

In essence, visionary leaders know what they are doing, where they are going, how they intend to get there, who they intend to get there with, and when they intend to get there.

If Dubai, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam, or Rwanda can experience radical transformation and growth in a single generation, then why not Nigeria? I strongly believe it is possible.   

Exactly 22 years ago, I visited Dubai for the very first time. Most of what you see in Dubai today did not exist back then. The spectacular projects that have captured the world’s imagination ever since only existed in the minds of the architects and the city’s rulers.

But something made a deep impression on me at the time. It was the absolute certainty of vision that the leaders and people of Dubai had at that time about what the future of their city would look like in 20 years. I  was told at the time of my first visit by city officials that Dubai’s motto was – “Pushing Boundaries.” In other words, they believed that whatever has not been done anywhere else in the world, it is possible to pull off in Dubai. They absolutely believed that if you can conceive it, you can achieve it.

That belief system did not come by happenstance. It was nurtured by their leader and instilled in the public consciousness.

Fast forward to 2022. What was once a vision and a dream has become a reality.

The rumour is that many of our leaders visit Dubai quite frequently and own impressive real estate portfolios in this futuristic city.

Today, Dubai is home to:

• The Burj Khalifa, the tallest building in the world and an engineering and architectural marvel
• The Burj Al Arab, the only 7-star hotel in the world
• The Dubai Miracle Garden, the world’s largest natural flower garden
• The Palm Jumeirah artificial Islands have increased Dubai’s shoreline by 520 kilometres.
• 30+ Free Trade Zones each representing different industries
• Emirates – a first-class airline with one of the largest fleets of modern aircraft in the world.
• The Museum of the Future
• And Dubai Media City and the Dubai internet city, the largest IT and media hubs in the Middle East with a goal to transform Dubai into the world’s leading Smart City.

This City State has moved at the speed of light in just two decades to create an alternative and preferable future for its people and the world. This is the result of the power of vision, political will, strong determination, transparent accountability, laser-like focus, unquestionable commitment, and amazing creativity.

But Dubai is not done. It is already implementing Vision 2040. I can only imagine what the next 20 years will look like.

They have done it once. They will do it again.

My point is this. The future is not a matter of chance, accident, fate or wishful thinking. For better or for worse, the future is what we create and design it to be.  

“E go better E go better”, na im put us where we dey today. In Yoruba, we tend to say, loja ola. As in tomorrow it will come to pass. But the proverbial ‘better tomorrow’ is the only consequence of our cumulative actions today.

So, to the next President of Nigeria, the billion Naira questions are –

• What future do you have in mind for Nigeria?
• Do you have a clear vision and road map for where Nigeria will and should be in 20 years?
• Is your vision grounded in reality … a reality that most Nigerians can be excited about and buy into?
• Do you have an idea of the composition of your government? Have you identified now, and not after being sworn into office, who are the best and brightest Nigerians – men and women, young and old, at home and in the Diaspora – that you intend to bring into your government?
• Will you go about the business of fixing the problems of Nigeria for which you were elected or will you spend the next four or eight years blaming the previous Administration or Party?
• Will you have the mental, emotional, psychological, and physical stamina needed to steer this complex and diverse nation toward a future we can all believe in, aspire to, and be proud of?
• Will you be able to withstand the centrifugal forces that have a tendency to keep us bound in an ethnoreligious quagmire?

For the next President of Nigeria, the stakes are too high.

Mr. President-To-Be, The choice will be in your hands. That choice ought to have begun long before you received the nomination of your party, and not when you are being sworn in at Eagle Square in Abuja.

Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, the future was yesterday and we are already late.

So, the question once again is, “What does Nigeria need from the next President in 2023?” I am sure there are a million and one things. However, there are 3 basic things –

1. What Nigeria needs from the Next President of Nigeria is a recognition that the sole purpose of the exalted office that he will occupy, is not power for the sake of it, but a desire to bring into reality, the kind of future Nigerians want, by all means possible. This will require boldness, clarity of mind, intellect, the ability to build a winning team from day one, the capacity to bring others along through the power of communication, transparent accountability within the executive, legislative, and judicial arms of government, and radical reforms within the civil service.

• The next President of Nigeria must decide how he wants to lead, shape and configure Nigeria. The vision statements, national policies, systems, strategies, staff, and structures that the President and other elected and nominated leaders put in place, will give you an idea of the kind of Future Nigeria that he has in mind. You will not have to wait long to find out. You will discern the direction in which the country is going very very quickly.

• What Nigeria needs from the next President in 2023, is the willingness and the steely resolve, and p political will to make a choice about the Future Nigeria he wants. Again, allow me to emphasize, the future is not a function of fate nor is it a function of chance. The best way to predict the future is to create it. It is a choice that must be made by the next president of Nigeria from day one.

With regard to the type of future Nigeria the next President creates, there are only four possible scenarios or outcomes available. Of the four scenarios, consciously or unconsciously, can only create one scenario or outcome. whether he likes it or not!

Let me try and break this down a bit. Abeg, una go allow me to explain the title of each scenario dem for English and Pidgin, so we go understand the matter well well.  

As mentioned, there are four future scenarios before Nigeria. The next President will play a critical role in bringing one of them to pass by his vision or lack of it, his actions or inactions, his choices, his policies, his strategies, and through his vision and words.

• Choice A:  The first future scenario is STATUS QUO or ‘MAKE E BE AS E BE’: In this scenario, Nigeria remains pretty much the same with all of its perennial challenges and problems. We stay where we are. We just dey there! No forward motion on all development indices. As a nation, if we continue doing things the same old way while expecting different results, that is what you get. Make e be as e be. It is a choice!

• Choice B: The second potential future scenario or outcome for Nigeria is REGREGRESSION or as my wafi brothers and sisters swill say, ‘REVERSE BACK’: In thisscenario, on every level of social and economic development  in terms of the quality of infrastructure, health care, education, transportation, seaports, airports, security, power and energy, agriculture and food security, water and sanitation, digital infrastructure, communication and IT, rural development, and urban decongestion, instead of staying the same, the human development indices will actuallt Nigeria actually begin to decline with measurable proof. Such a situation is possible if our next President fails to take up the challenge.

The world is not waiting and no one is coming to save us except ourselves. If we refuse to innovate in the face of rapid global change, that is what we will get. It is a choice.

• Choice C: The third potential scenario or outcome for Nigeria is, God forbid, TOTAL CHAOS or EVERYTHING KPAFUKA  or as some like to say, KASALA GO BURST ANY HOW or YAWA GO GAS EVERYWHERE:  In this third scenario, the hydra headed challenges that we have faced for decades could mushroom and pull this nation apart. Historically, nations with fewer and less complicated challenges and conflicts than Nigeria have broken up. What is there to suggest that Nigeria can dodge the proverbial bullet if we continue along this trajectory? It is a collective prayer I believe, that the next President of Nigeria will make wise and just decisions that will cement our collective unity. To do so or not to do so is a choice.   

• Choice D: The fourth and final future scenario for Nigeria based on the vision and leadership of the next elected President is what I refer to as THE NIGERIA OF OUR DREAMS or ‘NIGERIA WEY EVERTHING SET WELL WELL … WEY PEOPLE GO DEY JOLLY.’ For the avoidance of any doubt, let me state emphatically and categorically, that I believe in One Nigeria. A beautiful, diverse, and endowed nation with abundant natural resources and fertile land, with 218 million creative, talented, and dynamic people. A nation and a people where even our very own worst critics often pause and admit that there is something truly exceptional about Nigeria and Nigerians.

I believe that the Nigeria of our collective dreams is possible.

It will require of the next elected  President of Nigeria strong political will, accountability, good governance, integrity, sincerity, prudent fiscal management, zero tolerance for corruption, a dream team of the smartest and best technocrats and civil servants, equity in the allocation of resources and positions of government,  fairness, and the spirit of a father that gives every Nigerian a sense of belonging regardless of tribe, ethnicity, religion, gender, or age.

So, how are we going to get there, and what must we do?

1. We must recognize that Nigeria is a system with many parts and sub-systems. It includes the Federal executive government, the judiciary, and the national assembly. In addition, 36 State Governments and a Federal Capital Authority, local governments, ministries, parastatals, the civil service, and the private sector. These different sub-systems perform at varying levels of efficiency and excellence. Some well and others very poorly. The question therefore is how can the system be made whole when several critical sub systems are not?

The bottom line is that for there to be effective coordination, collaboration and cooperation between the various sub-systems, you require competence and capacity at the super structure level. The question is do we have the political will to change the system?

• We must give power to the people. By this I mean electricity. On the first day of creation, God said, “let there be light.” Why? Light, energy, or power was fundamental to the remaining works of creation. Without it, nothing else could be created. It is likewise the case that without energy or electricity, it is impossible to power or build anything else. Without energy there can be no development.  

Today, with a population of 218 million people, Nigeria’s installed electricity capacity stands at only 18,000 MW. Of this, the country generates close to 8,000 MW, and the capacity to distribute even less. By contrast,  South Africa with a population of only 60 million people, has 52,000 MW of installed generation capacity and 47,000 MW of production capacity. Even with this massive capacity, compared to Nigeria, for the first time ever, South Africa is beginning to experience brownouts and blackouts. The point is that even with a tripling of Nigeria’s current installed electricity capacity, it will still not be enough to meet our domestic and industrial needs.

We can learn from what others are doing. Recently, I had the opportunity to visit MASDAR City in Abu Dhabi. It is the world’s most sustainable low-carbon city. 100% of its energy needs come from renewable sources. The city is a complete innovation ecosystem with artificial intelligence, research and development centres and green buildings that require 40% less energy.

In just 12 years, Masdar City has developed a massive solar energy production capacity of 17,500 megawatts.

We must therefore invest heavily in natural gas, which we have in abundance, as part of our energy mix, and in renewable energy in solar, hydro, and wind.

Without a doubt, if Nigerians are given access to affordable energy and electricity, they will unleash their entrepreneurial spirit in the most amazing and productive ways.

We must move at the speed of light

• We must develop environmentally sustainable communities in the face of climate change and its devastating effects. It is important to note that by 2030, 60% of the world’s population will live in cities.

I grew up in this city at a time when it had only 1.5 million people. By 2030, eight short years from now, Lagos – the city that never sleeps – will have a population of roughly 21 million. All across Africa, the effects of climate change and the lack of infrastructure and jobs in rural areas is depopulating local communities and putting unprecedented pressure on cities that lack capacity.

I recall that when I was in elementary school, Lake Chad, which borders Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon, covered 26,000 square kilometres (about the size of Belgium) and it provided water for 30 million people. Ever since the Lake has shrunk by 90%. The impact on communities and the insecurity it has created is only best imagined. The fact is that from Lake Chad, across the Sahel, down to the Niger Delta and other coastal regions of Nigeria, the effects of climate change are staring us in the face.

While Africa accounts for just 4% of global CO2  emissions, it suffers disproportionately from its impact. The consequence is that the least of the global contributors, including Nigeria, are the worst affected.

Nigeria must adapt to climate change and access much-needed donor funds that allow us to do so.

• We must make massive investments in education. You simply cannot aspire to build a world-class country or infrastructure on an educational system that is underfunded and has not kept up with global trends, technologies, or teaching methodologies. It is just not possible. I was privileged to have a world-class education right here in Nigeria, from primary school through University. The University of Ife, now OAU, was a magnet for brilliant faculty from Nigeria and across the world. We must and we can restore what has been lost. But we must make a choice to change the status quo.

Two months ago, I had the privilege to visit King Hassan VI Polytechnic University in Morocco. Although established in 2013, just nine years ago, it is already being referred to as the University of the future. It specializes in the highly relevant fields of artificial intelligence, industrialization, food security, and sustainable development. It is preparing its students for a future that is already here.

We must restructure our educational and vocational systems from the ground up.

• We must invest heavily in world-class healthcare infrastructure in hospitals, diagnostic centres, and pharmaceutical and vaccine production. One thing the COVID-19 pandemic has taught us is that you cannot outsource your healthcare security to the benevolence of other nations. When the pandemic began, wealthy nations in North America, Europe, and Asia began hoarding vaccines. It took months before most African nations could even receive adequate supplies of face masks and hand sanitisers. The lesson? We cannot wait for the next pandemic. We must Invest now!

• We must invest smartly Agriculture has tremendous potential to feed Nigeria and the world. But as the saying goes, you cannot eat potential. You must transform potential. The Russian War in Ukraine has already raised the cost of food and fertiliser prices globally. 30 million tons of wheat and maize will not be exported to Africa. Consequently, Africa faces a huge food and fertiliser crisis.

However, I am truly excited to see Aliko Dangote’s visionary world-class refinery. This facility is more than sufficient to meet all Nigeria’s domestic needs with huge additional export potential.

I am also excited about the Special Agro Processing Zones that President Buhari’s Administration is launching in conjunction with the African Development Bank.

According to the AfDB President, Dr Akinwumi Adesina, Africa’s food and agriculture business will be worth a whopping $1 Trillion dollars by 2030. With abundant arable land, plentiful water supplies, a dynamic and entrepreneurial workforce, and new technologies Agriculture can become Nigeria’s greatest revenue earner. To do so we must add value and not simply export raw commodities.

Linked to these developments is the need to transform our seaports and to transform industrialisation.

The reason for the existence of a modern port system should not be the collection of import duties and taxes but the acceleration of the export of processed value-added products, including processed foods.

We must transform our industrial capacity. Let me explain.  In 2020, crude oil accounted for 88.6% of our export revenues, which totalled $34 billion.

By contrast, in 2020, Vietnam which went through a devastating war just as Nigeria did, had industrial export revenues of $348 billion. Ten times more than Nigeria’s exports from crude oil. But the most troubling trend is that Nigeria according to OPEC, exports crude oil worth $34 billion but imports refined petroleum products worth $72 billion because our refineries are not operating.

• One of the brightest spots on the Nigerian horizon is the doggedness, dynamism, and creativity of the Nigerian youth. In spite of generational governmental neglect, they have flourished in areas that do not necessarily require state intervention. This includes entertainment, sports, arts, and the digital and fintech worlds.

Nigerian pop culture has captured the imagination of the world. This generation of brand ambassadors has done more for Nigeria’s image than the best PR machines money can buy. The next President of Nigeria, must engage with, support, and leverage this dynamic demographic.

CONCLUSION

For Nigeria and the next President of Nigeria to accomplish all of this and to create the Nigeria of our dreams, we must solve Nigeria’s security challenges. I think this is a no-brainer. Every Nigerian knows the devastating impact that insecurity has had on social and economic development. Today, there are 2.18 million Nigerians who are Internally Displaced Persons on account of criminality, banditry, and terrorism.

Again, no comment is required about the devastating impact that this phenomenon has had on the lives of innocent men, women and children, as well as on agriculture, the economy as a whole and the reputational damage it has caused Nigeria as an investment destination. Ultimately, investments and finance only stay where it is made comfortable. To attract the levels of investment in the billions of dollars that Nigeria needs, we must create a secure Nigeria by dealing at the root with the underlying cause.

CLOSE: Distinguished Ladies and gentlemen, the future is knocking at the door. It is saying let me come in. The Nigeria of our dreams is a choice! It must be designed consciously and strategically. For the next elected President of Nigeria, what future scenario will it be? Status Quo Make E be As E Be? Regression or Reverse Back? Total Chaos aka Kasala Go Burst Any How? Or The Nigeria of our Dreams Wey Set Well Well? It’s a matter of choice. May God give the next President of Nigeria the vision, wisdom, and boldness to make the right choice.

Permit me to mention that the Nigeria of our dreams will require more than one “Oga at the top.” It will take you. It will take me.

It is said that you are known by the company you keep. Along with all the speakers who have preceded me, and the ones who will follow, let me just say that it’s been an awesome privilege to be in your collective company today.

God bless you and may God Bless Nigeria.

• Dr. Victor Oladokun is a journalist and communications consultant. He is the Senior Advisor to the President, (Communication & Stakeholder Engagement) African Development Bank Group.