Diaspora Dollars

Nigeria’s Economic Lifeline and the Resilience of Remittances

The Nigerian naira has faced persistent depreciation against the US dollar, with an accelerated decline in 2022 driven by multiple factors, including the global economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic, foreign exchange shortages, inflation, and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policies. By October 2023, the naira had crossed the 1000-to-a-dollar threshold for the first time since 1999, reaching over 1200 to a dollar in the final week of the month. The Nigerian government and CBN have implemented various measures to address this issue, such as floating the naira, raising interest rates, selling foreign exchange reserves, and imposing import restrictions. The effectiveness of these measures remains uncertain, leading to collaborative efforts with international partners to develop a comprehensive plan to tackle Nigeria’s economic challenges.

Meanwhile, diaspora remittances have emerged as a vital source of financial stability for Nigeria, which is often regarded as the economic powerhouse of Africa. With annual remittances exceeding $21 billion, Nigeria ranks as the second-largest recipient of remittances in Africa, after Egypt. These remittances play a pivotal role in bolstering foreign exchange earnings, supporting household consumption, driving investments, and fuelling overall economic growth.

Despite a temporary dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021 saw a recovery with remittances reaching $19.2 billion. Projections for 2023 indicate that Nigerians abroad are likely to send over $25 billion, potentially surpassing revenues from declining oil exports. These remittances are instrumental in addressing various needs, from education, healthcare, and business investments to real estate and infrastructure. Moreover, they significantly contribute to Nigeria’s GDP, comprising approximately 6%, while facilitating job creation and poverty reduction.

These remittances also play a broader role in stabilising the naira, funding essential infrastructure projects, and promoting financial inclusion, thereby expanding participation in the formal financial system. Recognising their pivotal importance, the Nigerian government should consider strategies to further incentivise these remittances, including reducing costs, facilitating diaspora investments through tax incentives, and promoting digital remittance methods to maximize contributions from the diaspora community.

Volume and Value of Remittances

Remittances have played a pivotal role in Nigeria’s economic landscape over the past three years, with notable fluctuations in figures. In 2018, the country received remittances amounting to $24.31 billion, demonstrating substantial contributions from its diaspora population. The following year, in 2019, there was a slight dip as remittances decreased to $23.81 billion.

However, the year 2020 posed a significant challenge due to the global COVID-19 pandemic. Remittances dropped to $17.21 billion, primarily because of disruptions caused by the pandemic, including lockdowns, travel restrictions, and economic uncertainties that hindered global economic activities.

The impact of COVID-19 on remittances was especially significant. With lockdowns and travel restrictions in place across many countries, Nigerian workers abroad faced difficulties sending money back home. Additionally, the depreciation of the naira’s exchange rate further reduced the value of remittances in local currency. Government policies, such as the Naira4Dollar scheme and restrictions on mobile money operators for receiving remittances, while aimed at boosting foreign exchange reserves, discouraged some Nigerians abroad from sending money through official channels.

Despite these challenges in 2020, remittances to Nigeria showed resilience and began to recover as global conditions improved. In 2021, remittances rose again to $19.2 billion, underscoring the determination of Nigerian workers abroad to support their families and communities.

In 2022, there was a further recovery as the country received a total of $19.8 billion in remittances, representing a 7% increase from the previous year. These remittances accounted for approximately 5% of Nigeria’s GDP, playing a vital role in supporting the country’s foreign exchange reserves and contributing to household incomes.

The recovery in remittances underlines the critical role played by the Nigerian diaspora, both in economic support and resilience. These resilient trends reflect the unwavering commitment of the Nigerian diaspora to contribute to the nation’s well-being and development.

Importance to the Nigerian Economy

Remittances are a vital pillar of the Nigerian economy, providing far-reaching contributions that extend beyond financial transfers. These contributions are particularly important due to their potential to surpass oil exports in 2023 in terms of foreign exchange earnings. They are critical in the following ways:

1. Foreign Exchange Earnings: In 2022, Nigeria received remittances amounting to $19.8 billion. This influx of foreign currency not only helps stabilise the exchange rate of the naira but also plays a crucial role in bolstering Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. As of 2023, remittances are poised to exceed oil exports as a source of foreign exchange, reflecting the increasing importance of the diaspora community.
2. Support for Household Consumption: Remittances are a lifeline for many Nigerian families, directly supporting household consumption. These funds are often used to cover basic needs such as food, housing, healthcare, and education, significantly improving the living standards of recipients.
3. Investment and Economic Growth: Beyond meeting immediate consumption needs, remittances can serve as a source of capital for investment. Families use these funds to start or expand businesses, invest in agriculture, or develop other income-generating projects. In this way, remittances facilitate economic growth and employment generation, particularly in rural areas where job opportunities are limited.
4. Job Creation: Remittances can have a multiplier effect on the economy by stimulating job creation. When recipients invest in entrepreneurial ventures or expand existing businesses, they often hire additional workers, thereby contributing to job creation and benefiting the recipients’ families and the broader community.
5. Poverty Reduction: Remittances have a notable impact on poverty reduction. By providing financial stability and resources, they empower recipients to escape the cycle of poverty. As they invest in education and healthcare, remittances offer long-term benefits and opportunities, fostering a more prosperous and equitable society.

Specific Examples of Remittance Utilisation

Remittances are utilised in various critical sectors, including:

1. Agriculture: Many recipients invest remittances in agricultural projects, purchasing land, seeds, and equipment, increasing agricultural productivity, improving household income, and contributing to food security.
2. Education: Remittances play a significant role in funding education, covering school fees, purchasing textbooks, and supporting vocational training, ensuring children have access to quality education and better employment opportunities in the long run.
3. Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs): Entrepreneurs often receive remittances from family members abroad to start or expand small businesses. This capital injection enables these SMEs to grow, generate income, and provide jobs within the local community.
4. Housing and Real Estate: Remittances are frequently used for constructing or renovating homes, improving living conditions, and stimulating the construction and real estate sectors.
5. Healthcare: Remittances improve access to healthcare by covering medical expenses, purchasing health insurance, or investing in healthcare facilities or services, thereby enhancing public health infrastructure.

Trends in Remittance Data

Fluctuations in remittances over the past five years have mirrored global economic factors, including the substantial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic:

1. 2018: In 2018, Nigeria received $24.31 billion in remittances, representing a peak in recent years.
2. 2019: Remittances remained robust in 2019, with $23.81 billion flowing into the country.
3. 2020: The year 2020 marked a substantial decline, with remittances dropping to $17.21 billion, reflecting the global economic downturn induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.
4. 2021: While specific data for 2021 is not readily available, a 2022 World Bank report generally observes that remittances started to recover in this year, but did not yet fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels.
5. 2022: Data from the first quarter (Q1) to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022 provided by Nairametrics shows that remittances continued their recovery path. However, the recovery was gradual, with remittances beginning to taper off toward the end of the year.

Factors Affecting Remittances

Several factors can significantly influence remittance inflows to Nigeria:

1. Exchange Rate Depreciation: Exchange rate fluctuations can have a substantial impact on remittances. A depreciating local currency, like the Nigerian Naira, can potentially increase the value of remittances when converted into the local currency. In 2020, the Naira depreciated significantly, which may have contributed to the decline in remittances that year.
2. Government Policies: Government policies, especially those related to foreign exchange controls and remittance regulations, can influence the ease and cost of sending money to Nigeria. In the past, restrictions and delays related to accessing foreign exchange in Nigeria have had an impact on remittance inflows. Therefore, government policies aimed at easing the flow of remittances can positively affect these financial transfers.
3. Naira4Dollar Scheme: The Naira4Dollar scheme, introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria, offers an incentive to recipients of international money transfers by providing extra Naira for each dollar received. This scheme was launched in March 2021 to encourage the receipt of remittances through formal channels, which can boost the recorded remittance figures and promote transparency in the process.
4. Unofficial Channels and Cryptocurrency Platforms: Informal methods, including carrying cash when returning home or using friends and family travelling between countries, are often used by the diaspora to send money. Cryptocurrency platforms, like Bitcoin, have also gained popularity for cross-border transfers, offering potentially faster and cheaper alternatives to traditional remittance methods. These unofficial and digital channels might not be fully captured in official remittance data, making it challenging to provide an accurate assessment of their impact.

Comparative Analysis with Oil Revenues and Economic Significance of Remittances

Official remittances consistently exceeded Nigeria’s oil revenues from 2014 to 2018. In this five-year period, remittances proved to be a formidable force in Nigeria’s economy, providing vital external financing while outpacing the nation’s oil. In 2018, remittances to Nigeria reached an impressive $24.31 billion, far surpassing a comparatively lower figure for oil revenues. This stark contrast underscores the economic importance of remittances, which have consistently represented a substantial share of Nigeria’s GDP. These funds are instrumental in supporting household consumption, spurring investment, fostering economic growth, creating job opportunities, and reducing poverty.

A 2022 PWC report provides a global perspective on remittances, emphasising their significance for Nigeria. Firstly, it highlights global remittance trends and their critical role in developing economies. Remittances serve as an essential source of external financing, promoting economic development, poverty reduction, and improved livelihoods for millions worldwide. Secondly, the article places Nigeria among the top recipients of remittances in Africa, reaffirming its position as a remittance powerhouse on the continent.

The Nigerian Diaspora Commission plays a central role in engaging the diaspora community for national development. By facilitating collaboration between the government and Nigerians abroad, the Commission helps harness the economic potential of the diaspora, creating opportunities for investments and partnerships. In line with this, PWC offers recommendations to maximise the impact of remittances. These include creating platforms to connect Nigerians abroad with investment opportunities in their home country, encouraging pooled investments for more significant economic impact, reducing remittance costs, and leveraging technology to improve the efficiency and transparency of remittance flows.

Transforming Nigeria’s Economy: A Holistic Perspective

As we delve into the multifaceted role of remittances in Nigeria, it is crucial to consider the broader implications and opportunities that arise from the intersection of remittances and national development.

The comparison between official remittances and Nigeria’s oil revenues paints a compelling picture of remittances’ significance in the national economic landscape. The World Bank reports that from 2014 to 2018, official remittances consistently outpaced oil revenues, highlighting their resilience and economic weight. This trend underscores that remittances are not merely a supplementary financial stream but have become a vital pillar of the Nigerian economy.

Furthermore, the sizeable share of GDP represented by remittance flows cannot be overlooked. In the context of Nigeria’s economic performance, remittances contribute significantly, revealing the critical role they play in supporting the nation’s overall economic stability. As of 2020, remittances accounted for 6.1% of Nigeria’s GDP, underscoring their substantial impact.

PwC provides key insights into global remittance trends, shedding light on the pivotal role that Nigeria plays in the remittance landscape. Nigeria consistently ranks among the top remittance recipients in Africa, driven by its large diaspora community. As remittance flows account for 38% of sub-Saharan Africa’s total, Nigeria has firmly established itself as a major recipient, receiving $20.1 billion in remittances in 2022.

PwC emphasises that the role of the Nigerian Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM) is indispensable in harnessing the potential of Nigerians abroad for national development. NDC serves as a vital link between the diaspora and the Nigerian government, facilitating engagement and collaboration. Recognising the diaspora’s capacity to contribute to the nation’s growth, NIDCOM’s efforts are instrumental in channelling remittances and expertise into areas such as investment, skills transfer, and technology transfer.

There is further emphasis on the need for strategic initiatives to enhance remittance utilisation. It recommends creating platforms that can link diaspora investment to specific projects in Nigeria, thereby optimising the impact of remittances. Additionally, PwC advises on reducing remittance costs, encouraging pooled investments, and leveraging technology to streamline the remittance process and increase efficiency. These recommendations are pivotal for strengthening the remittance ecosystem.

Most interesting is Ndubuisi Ekekwe’s recent proposal in an LM article to stabilise a struggling naira through a partnership with the Nigerian diaspora. This offers an innovative perspective. By raising funds from the diaspora and guaranteeing investments through financial institutions and future crude oil sales, this approach addresses the challenges posed by the naira’s volatility. It recognises the vast potential of the diaspora’s financial resources in fostering economic transformation and stability.

The proposed fund allocation to address overdue forward payments, modernise the oil and gas sector, develop independent power systems, and revive national refineries exemplifies a comprehensive approach to nation-building. These investments not only contribute to economic growth but also address key issues that have hindered progress in these areas.

A Path to Economic Transformation:

The economic significance of remittances in Nigeria is undeniable, with remittance flows consistently surpassing oil revenues during specific years. These inflows not only serve as a financial buffer but also represent a substantial portion of the country’s GDP, contributing to economic stability. The engagement of the Nigerian Diaspora Commission and recommendations from the PwC article underscore the critical role that the diaspora community plays in national development. By creating platforms for investment, reducing remittance costs, and leveraging technology, Nigeria can further harness the potential of these remittances to drive economic growth.

Ndubuisi Ekekwe’s innovative proposal for a partnership with the Nigerian diaspora introduces a fresh perspective on economic stability and growth. His plan to raise substantial funds, backed by guarantees from financial institutions and future crude oil sales, presents an intriguing opportunity to address the naira’s instability while channelling investments into crucial sectors. The prospect of attracting significant diaspora investment and retaining funds within the country could have a profound impact on Nigeria’s financial landscape, offering a promising pathway to economic transformation and prosperity.