The recent coup in Niger Republic has sent shockwaves through the West African region, raising concerns about stability and the potential for armed conflicts. The implications of this coup go beyond Niger’s borders, as the country’s strategic importance, uranium, and oil resources make it a key player in the eyes of global powers such as the United States, Europe, China, and Russia. In response to the coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), led by Nigeria’s President Tinubu, issued a firm ultimatum for the military junta in Niger Republic to restore the ousted President Mohamed Bazoum to power within a specified timeframe. Failure to comply with this ultimatum could result in military intervention by ECOWAS forces to reinstate the democratically elected leader. The situation has reached a critical juncture, with the regional bloc imposing sanctions on Niger, including halting financial transactions and freezing national assets.
Niger’s Coup and Escalating Regional Tensions
The coup in Niger was the culmination of simmering tensions between President Mohamed Bazoum and his chief guard, General Abdourahamane Tiani. President Bazoum’s attempts to assert his authority after succeeding his political godfather Mahamadou Issoufou in 2021 appeared to have led to friction within the military and public administration. Bazoum’s efforts to sideline senior figures in both sectors and his anti-corruption programs targeting some of Issoufou’s proteges, especially in the oil sector, seemed to have sparked resistance and resentment.
General Tiani, who had commanded the powerful presidential guard for a decade and played a key role in thwarting a coup shortly before Bazoum took office, perceived himself as a potential target of the president’s assertive drive. Fearing that he might face removal from his position, Tiani turned against President Bazoum, confident that other military commanders would align with his cause. His coup plans reportedly included seeking support from select commanders to ensure a smooth takeover and minimize internal resistance.
“The consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business,” Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, spokesman for the Northern Senators Forum, said just after the ECOWAS ultimatum.
The ECOWAS ultimatum comes in an effort to crack down on military coups, with the Niger military take-over one of several witnessed in the region since 2020.
“The consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business,” Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, spokesman for the Northern Senators Forum, said just after the ECOWAS ultimatum.
Niger’s significance extends beyond its borders and holds economic and geopolitical importance for various countries. The country’s uranium and oil reserves make it an attractive player for global powers. The United States, Europe, China, and Russia have vested interests in the region due to its natural resources and strategic location. For instance, France and the United States have maintained a significant military presence in Niger, using it as a base to combat Islamist militants in the Sahel.
The instability resulting from the coup jeopardizes the interests and operations of these foreign powers. With previous military takeovers in Mali and Burkina Faso already forcing France to withdraw troops from the region, the situation in Niger could further disrupt security cooperation and embolden non-regional actors, potentially altering the balance of power in the area.
Nigeria’s Economic and Security Challenges
Nigeria’s economy faces significant constraints, with slow growth, high unemployment, and a need for extensive infrastructural development. Engaging in a costly military operation in a neighbouring country like Niger would further strain Nigeria’s already stretched resources.
“The consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business,” Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, spokesman for the Northern Senators Forum, said just after the ECOWAS ultimatum.
“Nigeria’s economy is not in a position to sustain a military intervention in Niger. The cost of such an operation would be immense, diverting much-needed funds away from crucial domestic priorities like infrastructure development, healthcare, and education,” warned Mr. Stephen Adewale, Director of Africa Dialogue Mission (ADM).
Nigeria faces significant internal security threats, particularly terrorism and insurgency, which require substantial resources and attention. The ongoing activities of Boko Haram and ISWAP in the northern border region pose a constant challenge to Nigeria’s security forces. The country’s military is already stretched thin, battling these extremist groups and working to maintain stability in various regions. A military intervention in Niger would divert resources from countering internal security threats, potentially leaving gaps that extremist groups could exploit to further destabilize the country.
Mr. Stephen Adewale also cautioned against the potential risks associated with engaging in a conflict that involves a neighbouring military junta actively supporting terrorists, stating, “What would now happen if a military junta that views us as adversaries actively supports these terrorists?”
Nigeria’s Diplomatic Role and Regional Leadership
As the Chairman of ECOWAS, Nigeria has historically played a pivotal role in promoting peace and security in the West African sub-region. Nigeria’s diplomatic engagement and leadership in the region provide an opportunity to find peaceful solutions to the crisis in Niger.
“We must choose our battles wisely and fight with the full might of our military only when it is absolutely necessary and when our security is directly threatened,” emphasized Femi Fani-Kayode, former aviation minister.
President Bola Tinubu’s position as the Chairman of ECOWAS further underscores Nigeria’s diplomatic engagement and leadership in the region. As the head of the regional bloc, President Tinubu holds a significant responsibility in fostering cooperation, resolving disputes, and ensuring stability among ECOWAS member states.
“Before you threaten us with war, think twice, study our history and learn about who we are and what we are capable of doing. As Shakespeare wrote, ‘Wake not our sleeping sword lightly’ and know that we are ‘slow to anger but irresistible in battle’,” warned Femi Fani-Kayode.
An armed invasion of Niger by Nigeria could have severe implications for Nigeria’s reputation as a responsible and respected regional power. Engaging in military intervention carries significant risks, both in terms of economic resources and potential loss of lives. Moreover, such a move could tarnish Nigeria’s image as a country that champions democratic values and civilian authority in the region.
The Director of Africa Dialogue Mission (ADM), Mr. Stephen Adewale, highlighted Nigeria’s waning military prowess and the internal security challenges it currently faces, stating, “We no longer have the kind of military Obasanjo used to reinstall the de Menezes administration in Sao Tome and Principe in the early 2000s, nor the power we had in the 1990s.”
It is crucial for Nigeria to consider the impact of its actions on regional stability and its own reputation as a responsible leader.
Risks of Protracted Warfare and Escalating Tensions
Engaging in a protracted military conflict with Niger Republic carries significant risks for Nigeria. As Mr. Adewale pointed out, Nigeria’s military might have been eroded, and the country lacks the necessary financial and industrial capacities to sustain prolonged warfare.
“God forbid the intervention in the Nigerien Republic became protracted, where are the military might and the equipment to sustain such protracted warfare?” questioned Mr. Adewale.
In the absence of substantial military resources, a prolonged conflict could strain Nigeria’s armed forces and lead to potential setbacks on the battlefield.
Furthermore, the involvement of other neighbouring countries, particularly Mali and Burkina Faso, raises concerns about the potential for regional destabilization. Both countries have warned that any military intervention against the coup leaders in Niger would be considered a “declaration of war” against their nations. This highlights the delicate balance of regional relations, and any military action could escalate tensions and lead to a broader conflict that further destabilizes the already fragile Sahel region.
Strained relations with regional partners could have severe diplomatic and security implications. Mali and Burkina Faso have already expressed support for Niger in the face of potential military intervention. Femi Fani-Kayode warned against provoking Nigeria, stating, “Before you threaten us with war, think twice, study our history and learn about who we are and what we are capable of doing.” Nigeria’s reputation as a responsible regional power is at stake, and any military aggression may result in alienating neighbouring countries and damaging regional cooperation efforts.
Moreover, Nigeria’s position as the Chairman of ECOWAS adds further complexity to the situation. President Tinubu’s diplomatic engagement is critical in finding peaceful solutions to the crisis in Niger. Ignoring diplomatic channels in favour of military intervention could weaken Nigeria’s credibility as a mediator in regional conflicts, potentially undermining ECOWAS’ role in promoting stability and peace in West Africa.
Escalating tensions and instability in the Sahel region present a significant risk for both Nigeria and neighbouring countries. The ongoing jihadist insurgency in the region, characterized by attacks and violence, has already resulted in numerous casualties and mass displacement of populations. Any further escalation could lead to a spillover of violence across borders, affecting regional security and hindering economic development.
Nigeria faces a complex diplomatic dilemma concerning the crisis in Niger Republic. While ECOWAS contemplates military intervention, Nigeria’s Senate has advised against such action, advocating for diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation. Engaging in military intervention carries significant risks for Nigeria’s economy, regional stability, and international relations. The country’s waning military prowess and internal security challenges further emphasize the need to prioritize peaceful resolutions and regional cooperation.
Nigeria’s historical commitment to promoting peace in the West African region should guide its approach to the crisis in Niger. By upholding its values as a peace-loving nation and leveraging its diplomatic influence, Nigeria can foster dialogue and cooperation among ECOWAS member states. The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as it seeks to fulfill its responsibilities as a regional leader and champion of peace in West Africa. By prioritizing peaceful resolutions and engaging in constructive dialogue, Nigeria can help ensure a stable and prosperous future for the region.
